NOAA Forecasts Busy Hurricane Season for the Atlantic - What Could this Mean for the SCIPP Region?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today (May 27, 2010) released the 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast, which predicts an "active to extremely active" season throughout the basin. The 6-month season, which begins June 1, is predicted to have a 70% chance of the following throughout the Atlantic:

14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher)
8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher)
3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

An average season includes 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Several major factors contributed to NOAA's high forecast including: favorable upper level winds expected (weaker winds, which support the development of hurricanes), unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the regions where hurricanes tend to form, and the continuation of a generally active hurricane cycle that began in the mid 1990s.

El Nino and La Nina play a fairly significant role in the hurricane forecasts each May. While conditions are currently in a "Neutral phase" (which is between an El Nino and La Nina), conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for a La Nina to develop. La Nina episodes, which involve colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, tend to result in weaker upper atmospheric winds in the Atlantic basin which supports more hurricane formation. The opposite case occurs with El Nino episodes which tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin due to stronger upper level winds. In 2009, an El Nino developed early in the summer and resulted in a below normal season with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. 

So what does all of this mean for the SCIPP region? First, it must be emphasized that the forecast is not a landfall prediction, but with the forecast for an active season comes with it an increased risk of landfalling systems. Taking the last half decade of activity as an example, 3 of the past 5 hurricane seasons were above normal years for the Atlantic basin (2005, 2007, and 2008). In each of those years, the western half of the Gulf of Mexico (TX, LA, and MS) experienced a total of 9 landfalling storms with anywhere from 2 to 4 storms per season. The 2 years with lower than average activity (2006 and 2009) were associated with no landfalling storms in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. But while a more active season tends to increase the chances of landfalls, it is in no way a certainty. For instance, the year 2000 was an active one for the Atlantic basin, however no storms made landfall in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, the upcoming hurricane season certainly warrants a close eye for those with interests along the Gulf coast.

For more information about NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, please visit the news article here.