Winter Forecast for the SCIPP Region

Barry Keim, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Programs, Louisiana State University

Our winter forecast for most of the SCIPP region calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions, with the exception of Tennessee, where the forecast calls for wetter than normal conditions (Figure 1). Actually, what the Climate Prediction Center is really noting is that the probability of having a warmer and drier than normal season is enhanced, thereby having a higher than average chance for these conditions. This forecast is entirely consistent with what we would expect during a La Nina winter. In this instance, the jet stream and storm tracking tends to shift northward bringing rains to the Ohio River Valley, including Tennessee, and leaving the southern United
States warm, and high and dry.

If you consider how poorly forecasters are at predicting weather 4 or 5 days in advance, you would think that forecasting months ahead would be nearly impossible. Well, predicting specific weather events weeks to months in advance is impossible, indeed. Predicting climate, on the other hand, is a little different, although nonetheless daunting. There have been some recent breakthroughs in this science and it can be done with some (limited) success. Climate forecasters are becoming better skilled as result of understanding teleconnections. A teleconnection is an association of weather that takes place in differing parts of the earth. In this case, the reference is to our current La Nina. La Nina is a phenomenon that takes place in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, yet it has impacts on weather and climate in certain parts of the world, including the south-central United States. During past La Nina events, the south-central United States has tended to be warmer and drier than normal. Not surprisingly, this is precisely the forecast by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the region for this upcoming winter season. Clearly, this is not good news for those being impacted by the current drought conditions.

         

Figure 1: Winter (December through February) forecast for temperature (right) and precipitation (left) by the
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1.

SCIPP Program Manager Participates in Webinar on Climate Change and National Security

Dr. Lynne Carter, SCIPP program manager on the LSU campus, paneled a discussion conducted by the Security and Sustainability Forum July 21, 2011. The webinar titled Adaptation in a Changing Climate and its Impacts on National Security was the first of a five part series addressing the connections between climate change and its affects on resource management and the economy and the implications of those affects on national security. Dr. Carter has done extensive research on climate change adaptation and coastal sustainability in particular. 

The Security and Sustainability Forum will host the next webinar on August 4th. Viewing is free, and registration can be done at their website: securityandsustaiabilityforum.org.

How Louisiana is Experiencing Drought and Flood at the Same Time

SCIPP held Climate Adaptation Meeting on May 10th

The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program and Oklahoma Climatological Survey hosted a climate adaptation meeting on May 10th at the National Weather Center in Norman, OK. Participants included representatives from various state, local, tribal, federal, and non-profit organizations across Oklahoma.

Click on the links below to see some of the material that was presented at the meeting.

Climate Adaptation Meeting Overview

Some Preliminary Findings from Climate Needs Assessment 

Global Climate Change and the Implications for Oklahoma 

New SCIPP Annual Report Available

The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program team recently completed its latest annual report detailing program activities completed and underway during May 2010 through April 2011. To view the report, click on the image below or visit our Publications section.

 

Historic April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Affects Much of the U.S.

The catastropic severe weather events that occurred yesterday, April 27, 2011, are a harsh reminder of the power of mother nature and will be remembered for generations to come. Although much information regarding the number of tornadoes, intensities, injuries, and deaths is still being documented, preliminary information (as of April 28, 2011) suggest that this particular tornado outbreak will rank among the nation's top historic tornado outbreaks.

Looking back at major tornado events - particularly those with violent tornadoes (tornadoes with intensities of F4 and greater) - is a helpful way to establish some context from which April 27, 2011 will be compared. Below is a graphic showing how many violent tornadoes (F4s and F5s) have occurred across the lower 48 states each year from 1950 to 2010. The information is taken from the Storm Prediction Center's experimental Severe Weather Database (available at http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php). During this 60 year period, approximately 10 violent tornadoes have occurred on average each year. Years with much higher totals are pretty easy to spot - these highlight years with major violent tornado oubreaks such as 1974 (the year of the super outbreak of April 3-4), 1965 (April 11 outbreak), and 1952 (March 21 outbreak). Historically speaking, it is also interesting to note that it has been more than 30 years since the U.S. had a year with more than 15 violent tornadoes. It will be interesting to see how 2011 compares, particularly in light of yesterday's outbreak combined with an extremely active month of April.



From the standpoint of when violent tornadoes have most typically occurred in the U.S., the following graphic can help provide some perspective. The graph below shows the number of violent tornadoes (F4 and F5) that have occurred on each calendar day throughout 1950-2010. The thin blue bars are the daily total number of violent tornadoes, while the dark black line is a 2 week average that helps to reveal the overall trend throughout the months of the year. The analysis is fairly sensitive to outbreaks, which are apparent as individual days with high blue bars. What this image really tells us is that outbreaks of violent tornadoes in the past have occurred most commonly from late March through early May. Late May into early June is also active, however, there are fewer days with many violent tornadoes. In terms of when these events occur, the April 27, 2011 event fits right within the window of time that past historic outbreaks have occurred.



Only time will tell how the April 27, 2011 event stacks up to other historic tornado outbreaks. Early reports of the number of lives lost are difficult to contemplate in an era where warning information and communications have continued to improve. Continuing to understand how to understand these events and how to better prepare for them are a high priority for our research program at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program.

Texas Fires Assessed from Space

From NASA Earth Observatory: Image of the Day   http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=50202
Posted April 22 2011

So far in 2011, more than 1.4 million acres have burned in Texas. Some 800 fires have occurred throughout the state, burning 401 structures and costing two firefighters their lives. Why is fire activity so extreme in Texas this year? This image, made with data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite, reveals high temperatures that contributed to hazardous fire conditions.

Fire needs dry fuel to burn, and weather conditions in March and April turned Texas into a tinderbox. The state began the winter dry season with abundant vegetation, following a moist spring in 2010. But then drought settled over the state in late 2010 and early 2011, culminating in the driest March on record. Many areas received less than 5 percent of their normal rainfall, according to the state climatologist.

 
In addition to being dry, March and April were warmer than normal. The top image shows ground temperatures for April 7 to April 14 compared to long-term average for the week. The red tones indicate that most of Texas was much warmer than average, further drying out the abundant grasses, shrubs, and trees already suffering from a lack of rain.

The warm temperatures and dry vegetation combined with high winds and low humidity to create extremely dangerous fire conditions in Texas. Indeed, the MODIS true color image on April 15 showed strong winds blowing long plumes of smoke from multiple fires across the state.

 

References

National Climate Data Center. (2011, March). State of the climate, national overview. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Accessed April 21, 2011.

Office of the Texas State Climatologist. (2011, March). Texas Climatic Bulletin, March 2011. Accessed April 21, 2011.

Texas Forest Service. (2011, April 21). Texas Forest Service incident management situation report. Accessed April 21, 2011.

U.S. Drought Monitor. (2011, April 19). U.S. Drought Monitor South. Accessed April 21, 2011.

 

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using data provided by the MODIS science team. Caption by Holli Riebeek. 

Instrument: Terra - MODIS

Drought Conditions Continue to Deteriorate Across the South Central U.S.

As a final note, there are a variety of drought tools on the web to help monitor conditions. SCIPP has developed one if its own tools, which you can view at: 

http://www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php 

You can also browse to this tool from our data products section. Pleae contact us at scipp@mesonet.org with any questions. The National Drought Mitigation Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System also have a variety of resources worth checking out. 

Billion Dollar Disasters: 1980-2010

The National Climatic Data Center recently released updated information on billion dollar climate and weather disasters that have occurred across the United States during the past 30 years (1980-2010). The southeastern quadrant of the United States, including the entire region comprising the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (OK, TX, AR, LA, TN, and MS), was found to experience the greatest number of billion dollar events during the period. Though tropical storms and hurricanes were found to be a major contributor to billion dollar disasters (accounting for 50.6% of total damages), SCIPP's inland states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee were also highly impacted with 26 or more billion dollar disasters in each state over the 30 year period (note: a single billion dollar event could affect multiple states). 

To see more information on billion dollar climate and weather disasters, please see the National Climatic Data Center's website, which is linked in the image below.

New SCIPP Assessment Report on Major Disaster Declarations

The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program has recently completed an assessment report focused on historical disaster declarations across the United States entitled, "A Geographic Assessment of Major Disaster Declarations Across the Lower 48 States." The purpose of the report is to quantify and visualize historical disaster declarations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in an effort to identify regions most impacted in the past. Much of the information contained in the report is in map form with information broken down by specific hazard type (i.e., tornadoes, tropical cyclones, wildfires, etc.), decade, and month.

To view a full hi-resolution copy of the report, click here (32 MB). To view a lower resolution copy of the report, click here (5 MB).

Welcome to the Southern Climate Monitor!

Today the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program and Southern Regional Climate Center are launching a new monthly publication called the Southern Climate Monitor. The Southern Climate Monitor, or Monitor for short, is an experimental climate outreach tool focused on the south central portion of the United States - specifically the states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. 

The goal of the Monitor is to provide summaries of climate conditions in the region to provide a context for recent conditions. A new issue will come out in the early to mid portion of each month and provide a summary of conditions that occurred in the recently completed month. In addition, the Monitor will also include a unique monthly feature article that will focus on a variety of different topics throughout the year. These will include topics such as a summary of a recent extreme event (such as a tornado outbreak), assessments of past extremes, outlooks for an upcoming season (such as hurricane season, winter, etc.), a summary of a scientific research project, focus on a climate development such as an El Nino or La Nina, and so on. 

We are calling the Monitor an experimental tool to emphasize that the publication can evolve with time based on feedback we receive from you. We look forward to your input so that we can improve the information provided. 

And finally, a short section of the publication will be devoted to user submitted questions about climate in the region, so feel free to contact us at any time with a question. To provide any feedback or submit a question, you can reach us at monitor@southernclimate.org.

To view the first issue of the Monitor, click here. You can also look for future issues of the Monitor on our homepage at www.southernclimate.org.

Winter Outlook for the Southern US: What's in store?

SCIPP Produces Report for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

New Hazard Brochures Available

A series of new brochures focused on different climate hazards common across the Southern U.S. has been created and is now available in the Publications section of the website. These new brochures include a focus on drought, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Each of the documents provide an introduction to the hazard, some information on the historical occurrence of the hazard, planning information, tools, and other information. For any questions, or requests for new brochures please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org.

        

Beyond Katrina: Lessons Learned

Five years ago, New Orleans was ground zero in one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. Three years later - almost to the day - the city survived another major hurricane with barely a scratch. What happened to make the outcomes of Hurricane Gustav so much different from Katrina? It was the culminations of lessons learned, not only from Katrina but from a series of events dating back a decade.

It is true that government officials learned from Katrina, but Katrina was just one milestone along the way toward making New Orleans safer. In fact, New Orleans, the State of Louisiana, and the Gulf Coast region had already learned a great deal prior to Katrina. Those lessons, in addition to the lessons learned from Katrina made for arguably the most efficient and orderly evacuation of a large urban area ever conducted. The progression of events highlights the trust officials placed in improved forecasting, the role of planning, and the extent of learning from prior experience.

Georges, Pam and Ivan

Few will recall these storms in the same way they recall Katrina, but each taught important lessons that prepared the city for future challenges. The lessons began back in 1998 with Hurricane Georges. Georges seemed to take dead aim on New Orleans before veering sharply to the east, making landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi. Although New Orleans was spared, it highlighted how ill-prepared they were for a major hurricane. Evacuation was uncoordinated and chaotic. Each parish had its own separate response plan. Some parishes called for mandatory evacuations while others did not. Some opened shelters while others did not. The timing of evacuations was not coordinated between parishes, and as a result roadways became clogged and those most vulnerable had great difficulty getting out of harms way.

New Orleans was again put to the test by Hurricane Pam in 2004. Although Pam was only a simulation and not a real hurricane, it revealed further weaknesses in evacuation strategies. In the scenario, it was assumed that 65% of the metropolitan area would evacuate, leaving 600,000 people behind to ride out the storm. Water from the overtopped levees combined with excessive rainfall overwhelmed the city's drainage pumps, knocking out 80% of the pumps and leaving the city covered in water for more than a month. The scenario from Pam forced planners to confront tough questions. Participants had to identify specifically where they would obtain needed supplies, such as specific locations or suppliers of generators and how they would get them to the city.

Despite its level of detail, the exercise did not address longer-term issues, including temporary housing, relocation of displaced people, post-event security, reentry to the city by returning residents, and FEMA's promised stockpile of provisions - all issues that would resurface with Katrina.

Just months after the Hurricane Pam exercise, Hurricane Ivan seemed to have New Orleans in its sights as it reached Category 5 intensity with sustained winds of 170 miles per hour as it tracked across the Caribbean. Like Georges, it made a sharp right turn before landfall and weakened, coming ashore at Gulf Shores, Alabama with 120 mph winds. Unlike Georges, however, Louisiana officials had vastly improved coordination of its state and parish evacuation plans. Yet like its predecessors, Ivan too revealed some weaknesses. As is now common practice in mass evacuations, the inbound lanes of major highways were turned outbound in a
process known as contraflow. This doubled the capacity of Louisiana's highways to move people away from the coast. However, Louisiana officials failed to coordinate with Mississippi officials, who did not implement contraflow, causing a bottleneck along I-59 as people attempted to leave New Orleans.

Katrina comes ashore

While Katrina is well known for being among the worst U.S. disasters, there is an often untold story of the success of the evacuation. Learning from Georges, Pam and Ivan, over one million people from the New Orleans metropolitan area were evacuated within 36 hours, representing more than 80% of the region's population and far exceeding the projections from the Hurricane Pam exercise. Coordination of evacuations between neighboring states improved traffic flow, even though more people across a much larger area of coastline evacuated.

The failure of Katrina lay in the unresolved issues from Hurricane Pam. Those who were not able to evacuate by their own means relied on services that were unavailable. Rental cars, buses and ambulances were in short supply and many public transportation systems were shut down well in advance of the storm. Damage from the storm severed transportation arteries going into and out of New Orleans, leaving hundreds of thousands stranded. Local resources were in short supply and federal materials failed to materialize as promised.

Gustav: A different tale

While Katrina may have been "the perfect storm", Gustav was perhaps the perfectly-forecasted storm, at least in its track. From almost the moment it formed in August 2008, it was clear that Gustav was headed towards Louisiana. Two days before landfall, Mayor Nagin urged residents to "get your butts out of New Orleans." Nearly two million residents along the Gulf Coast followed this advice, the largest evacuation of the U.S. coastline in history. Although Hurricane Gustav weakened before landfall, there was still substantial risk of flooding and levee breaches that kept the city on edge.

Louisiana officials became concerned about Gustav on August 25, while it was still a tropical storm in the Caribbean, 7 days before landfall. Expectations of rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico led to early preparations. Graduation for Louisiana's newest class of state police officers was moved up three days so that extra manpower would be available. Local officials prepared for the worst-case scenario and shelters in surrounding states were contacted to move those unable to evacuate by their own means. Assisted evacuations began four days ahead of projected landfall and contracts were exercised to obtain as many as 700 buses - all of this while Gustav was still a tropical storm.

Three days before landfall, as Gustav intensified to Category 4 as was forecasted, Mayor Nagin issued a mandatory evacuation for New Orleans, saying that staying would be "one of the biggest mistakes you could make in your life." Even before the mandatory evacuation order had been issued, an estimated 1 million people had already left. By the time Gustav arrived, 95% of the city's population had evacuated. The American Red Cross, Louisiana Homeland Security and police were on standby, along with 300 National Guard soldiers in Baton Rouge and another 200 by air awaiting orders with another 7,000 National Guard solders deployed statewide. Officials were determined to avoid another Katrina.

More lessons to learn

While Gustav proved that officials learned from the past, there remain unresolved issues. Those who stay behind during evacuations include wanted felons and illegal immigrants, who would rather take their chances with the storm than possibly be captured at a shelter. While hurricane track forecasts have improved tremendously over the past decade, forecasting hurricane intensity at landfall is still a challenge. Related impacts of storm surge are another forecast challenge, making it difficult for officials to precisely target areas where evacuation is needed.

However, what Hurricane Gustav proved was that it is possible to evacuate large population areas along our coastlines, including those who are not capable of evacuating by themselves. Coordination between Louisiana, its neighbors, and the federal government moved those in need to shelters far away from New Orleans and then returned them safely within a matter of days. Louisiana officials deserve a great deal of credit for the seriousness with which they took the situation, at the first indication of a threat, keeping them ahead of events. Learning from the past led to a remarkable success story.

For more information, please read Lessons Learned (presented at the 2009 American Meteorological Society Conference).

And for further information, contact:

Mark Shafer
Oklahoma Climatological Survey/Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program
University of Oklahoma
405-325-2541
mshafer@mesonet.org

Barry Keim
Louisiana Office of State Climatology/Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program
Louisiana State University
225-578-6170
keim@lsu.edu

Gina Eosco
University of Kentucky
859-257-7805
eosco@ametsoc.org

Experimental Gulf of Mexico Storm Surge Dataset and Blog

SCIPP researchers have developed a new database for reviewing peak storm surge information from past tropical cyclone events. Hal Needham, recent SCIPP graduate at Louisiana State University, developed the comprehensive database of historical tropical cyclone events that have occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. It provides information on all recorded storm surge heights available since records began. 

The information is currently available in an experimental google-based display at http://surge.srcc.lsu.edu/. The map shows past maximum surge heights by location with larger circles (darker blue) indicating higher surges, and smaller circles denoting lower peak surge heights. This product is experimental, so we welcome any feedback or input you would like to provide. Input will contribute to future versions of products that SCIPP develops with this surge dataset. To contact us about this experimental tool you can reach us at scipp@mesonet.org.

In addition to this data, Hal is also running an experimental blog during this hurricane season to provide some interpretation of the storm surge data during potential landfalling storm events. This blog is available at http://stormsurge2010.blogspot.com/. The forecast path and intensity of current storms are compared with the historical surge information to provide a range of possible surge heights for the impending storm. Since this blog is also experimental, we welcome any feedback that you can provide regarding its utility.

Please reach us at scipp@mesonet.org to comment on either of these experimental tools!!

New SCIPP report on Southern U.S. Hazards and Climate Change Planning - Now Available

During the fall and winter of 2009, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program undertook a study to assess regional differences in hazard planning, climate change planning, and information use and needs. The results of that assessment study are being released today through the following summary report, which you can download here. We thank the nearly 300 participants who took the time to participate in this regional study, and we hope to continue working with many of you on more climate hazard-related projects.

For any questions about the results of this study or to find out more about opportunities to work with our stakeholder-driven research program, please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org!

New Experimental Products - Check Them Out!

The SCIPP team has added several new experimental climate information tools to the data products section of the website - check them out here. Many of these tools have their origins in products requested through the state climate offices of Oklahoma and Louisiana as well as at the Southern Regional Climate Center. Those products have now been greatly improved and updated through the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program RISA.

We invite you to try these out and let us know what you think. Being experimental, we are extremely open to making them better and adding features so they can help serve you better. During the next 6 weeks, SCIPP will also be undertaking a formal review process of these tools with a small set of reviewers. If you would like to serve as a formal reviewer, please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org for more information.

And finally, if you have any suggestions for new or future climate-related information products that would help serve you or other users across the Southern U.S., please do not hesitate to contact us at scipp@mesonet.org!

Oil and Hurricanes?

The recent forecast for a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin has raised considerable concerns regarding the impact a hurricane or tropical storm could have on the on-going oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico. To help answer some common questions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put together an excellent frequently asked questions sheet available at the National Hurricane Center website which you can view here.

For more information on NOAA's activities involving the Gulf of Mexico oil spill crisis, visit: http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/deepwaterhorizon. 

NOAA Forecasts Busy Hurricane Season for the Atlantic - What Could this Mean for the SCIPP Region?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today (May 27, 2010) released the 2010 Atlantic hurricane forecast, which predicts an "active to extremely active" season throughout the basin. The 6-month season, which begins June 1, is predicted to have a 70% chance of the following throughout the Atlantic:

14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher)
8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher)
3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

An average season includes 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Several major factors contributed to NOAA's high forecast including: favorable upper level winds expected (weaker winds, which support the development of hurricanes), unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the regions where hurricanes tend to form, and the continuation of a generally active hurricane cycle that began in the mid 1990s.

El Nino and La Nina play a fairly significant role in the hurricane forecasts each May. While conditions are currently in a "Neutral phase" (which is between an El Nino and La Nina), conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for a La Nina to develop. La Nina episodes, which involve colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, tend to result in weaker upper atmospheric winds in the Atlantic basin which supports more hurricane formation. The opposite case occurs with El Nino episodes which tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin due to stronger upper level winds. In 2009, an El Nino developed early in the summer and resulted in a below normal season with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. 

So what does all of this mean for the SCIPP region? First, it must be emphasized that the forecast is not a landfall prediction, but with the forecast for an active season comes with it an increased risk of landfalling systems. Taking the last half decade of activity as an example, 3 of the past 5 hurricane seasons were above normal years for the Atlantic basin (2005, 2007, and 2008). In each of those years, the western half of the Gulf of Mexico (TX, LA, and MS) experienced a total of 9 landfalling storms with anywhere from 2 to 4 storms per season. The 2 years with lower than average activity (2006 and 2009) were associated with no landfalling storms in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. But while a more active season tends to increase the chances of landfalls, it is in no way a certainty. For instance, the year 2000 was an active one for the Atlantic basin, however no storms made landfall in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, the upcoming hurricane season certainly warrants a close eye for those with interests along the Gulf coast.

For more information about NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, please visit the news article here.

News Article from USGS on Tennessee Floods

Please see the following news story from the USGS regarding the recent historic floods in Tennessee (May 2010).

High Flows in Tennessee Rivers Estimated 

Major Tornado in SCIPP region - How Rare Was It?

This past Saturday, April 24, 2010, a major tornado event unfolded across much of the southern and southeast United States, including a significant portion of the area covered by the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP).

One of the most widely publicized aspects of this tornado outbreak included an exceptionally long-track tornado that touched down in far northeastern Louisiana and continued northeastward through most of Mississippi - a tornado which has been labeled the "Yazoo City tornado." Latest National Weather Service damage assessments indicate that the Yazoo City tornado had a continuous track of 149 miles. Tornadoes of this length, while quite rare, have been observed in the historical record. A quick review of tornado information dating back to 1950 reveals that this tornado likely ranks within the top 5 longest continuous track tornadoes to occur in the SCIPP region (which includes Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi) during the past 60 years. Other notable tornadoes include:

• March 22, 1953: 234.7 miles (Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi)
• March 4, 1966: 202.5 miles (Mississippi and Alabama)
• February 21, 1971: 202.1 miles (Mississippi and Tennessee)
• April 30, 1970: 170.5 miles (Oklahoma)

The recent Yazoo City tornado occurred in an area that has seen several long track tornadoes in the past as shown in the image below which includes tornadoes of length 150 miles or greater (Image Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center).



For more information on this recent event and related damage survey please visit the National Weather Service Jackson, MS office here.

Resources Section Added to SCIPP Website

In response to the increasing amount of material now available on climate change, hazards, and related issues, the SCIPP team has launched a new section on our website to help you find items of relevance to you. The section is now available along our top tab and is entitled Resources. The section provides a collection of reports, presentations, links to key websites, and other media sources through an easily searchable interface. Resources can be filtered by selecting a particular category as well as the type of source you may be looking for. All are available for download by clicking on the title of the resource or its associated graphic.

This section is a living archive of materials that will be continually updated as new resources become available, and older materials become outdated. The initial selection of materials is a very small sample and will continue to be augmented, so please check back as this selection will grow. If you have any recommendations on materials to include or that you would like to see here, please send us an email at scipp@mesonet.org.

New Monthly Temperature & Precipitation Tool Available

The SCIPP team is proud to announce the launch of another new experimental product available through our website - the Average Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Tool. This climate information tool provides monthly averaged temperature and precipitation conditions and is available for the 48 contiguous states. Data are available for the most recently completed month and date as far back as 1895.

To access the tool, please visit our data products section (available here). To use the tool all you have to do is choose the state and climate division of interest (region within a state) followed by the year. The tool charts monthly precipitation and temperature values as averaged across a climate division and shows how conditions compared to the 30-year average (1971-2000). The charting interface is dynamic and supports several functions including: clicking layers of information on and off in the legend, labeling chart values when moving the cursor over the chart, and zooming in on a portion of the chart by drawing a box over it (click and drag to draw a box).

This is an experimental product, so we encourage you to try it out and let us know what you think. Additional experimental products are in development and will be added to this section, so continue to check back. Otherwise, if you have a request for a new product, please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org with more information.

Our SCIPP partners at the Southern Regional Climate Center (namely David Sathiaraj) were instrumental in the development of this tool and deserve the credit for the materialization of this effort! 

NOAA Article on Recent Cold Winter and Climate Change

The recent winter across the Southern U.S. has been a harsh reminder of what a cold and predominantly wet winter can bring to the South. From record-breaking temperatures to repeated (and in some places record-breaking) snowfalls, the season is certainly not one we will soon forget. But at the same time this recent winter season has also brought with it a considerable amount of confusion regarding the distinctions between weather and longer term climate conditions. To help shed some light on the recent winter season and how it relates to climate change the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has put together a very interesting article that is worth checking out:

http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/snowstorms.html

For any questions you may have about Southern climate, please do not hesitate to contact the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) at scipp@mesonet.org.

SCIPP Offering Student Internships at OU

The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program is pleased to announce a series of paid internship opportunities for graduate and upperclassman undergraduate students at the University of Oklahoma this summer. The 12-week program will offer a series of different projects providing students real-world experience in the rapidly growing career route in climate services. Please see the official announcement here.

Climate Services: What do State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Centers, and RISAs do?

Have you ever come across different organizations that provide climate services, yet not understand how they all fit together? You're not alone!

There are three particularly critical partners at the state and regional level that help to provide climate services: State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Centers, and Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program. These three groups play differing roles in climate services ranging from in-state interactions with users (State Climate Offices), to regional distribution of climate data (Regional Climate Centers), to the learning end of the spectrum focusing on the types of information and research user groups need to better make decisions (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments). A short brochure has recently been developed to further describes each of these groups, you may access it here.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also recently launched www.climate.gov which serves as an excellent new site that brings these climate services and many others together in a single location. 

If you have any questions about the SCIPP RISA or would like to work with us, please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org.

New Drought Tool Available Online

SCIPP is proud to announce the launch of its first experimental climate product available through our website - the Southern U.S. Drought Tool. This experimental product is based on a drought tables product first developed by Derek Arndt at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey. The tool was expanded to include both a tabular and graphical component along with a new dynamic interface that allows the user to view different time periods of interest, dates, and map layers.

The tool is intended for decision makers needing real-time information on past rainfall data and is currently available for all SCIPP states (Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi) as well as states in the southeast United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina). 

This is an experimental product that will continue to evolve and be improved through user feedback, so we encourage you to try it out and let us know what you think. The tool can be found in our data products tab (available here). Additional experimental products will be added to this section with time, so please check back from time to time.

SCIPP to Participate in Regional Climate Symposium

Members of the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program team have helped to organize and will be heavily involved with a climate symposium being hosted by the University of Oklahoma and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) February 9-10, 2010. SCIPP team member and Oklahoma Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus will be providing the keynote address for the meeting. In addition, Dr. Lynne Carter and Dr. Mark Shafer will be providing presentations on climate adaptation planning. The evening before the symposium, Mark and Lynne will be leading a public lecture on climate change which will include a listening session on community needs for climate change information.

The 1.5-day climate symposium is a free event being offered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. For more information on the event and to see the meeting agenda, please visit the meeting website here.

NOAA Announces Concept for National Climate Services

On Monday, February 8, 2010 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publicly announced the concept for a new NOAA Climate Service. Click here to read the announcement.

Along with the announcement, NOAA has also launched www.climate.gov as a portal for climate science and services. 

Presentation from Dr. Carter's Climate Adaptation Webinar

In case you were unable to attend Dr. Lynne Carter's January 28th webinar on climate change adaptation in the southeast U.S. or if you would like a copy of it, the powerpoint file has been made available for download (~15MB). 

Thanks for your time and interest in this seminar! If your community has an interest in more climate-related presentations such as this one, please contact either one of our SCIPP program managers James Hocker or Lynne Carter.

Lynne Carter to Provide Webinar on Helping Southeast Coastal Communities Think about Climate Change

SCIPP's LSU program manager, Dr. Lynne Carter, will lead a public webinar on climate change and adaptation this coming Thursday, January 28, 2010 from 11:00 AM to Noon Central time. The webinar is entitled "Planning to Protect: Helping Southeast Communities Think About Climate Change and Adaptation" and is being provided in partnership with ICLEI and the Southeast Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE). To register for the free webinar please visit the following website:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/673415371 

SCIPP to Present at the Annual American Meteorological Society Conference

Members of the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program will provide a series of project presentations at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference January 18-21 in Atlanta, Georgia. Presentations will cover a variety of topics including GIS development, partnerships, social science & engagement research, and others. The following denotes the title of each presentation and the scheduled time and place of its occurrence:

• GIS Development of the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Billy McPherson): Tuesday, January 19, 2010, 2:00 PM, Room B217.
  
  Challenges Associated with Classifying Urban Meteorological Stations: the Oklahoma City Micronet Example (Amanda Schroeder): Wednesday, January 20, 2010, 11:15 AM, Room B302.
  
  A Comparative Study of Drought Management in Oklahoma and Missouri (Heather Campbell): Wednesday, January 20, 2010, 2:30 PM - 4:00 PM (poster session), Exhibit Hall B2.
  
  Developing a Baseline for a RISA Program: SCIPP's Natural Hazards and Climate Change Planning Survey (James Hocker): Thursday, January 21, 2010, 8:45 AM, Room B212.
  
  Lone Grove, Oklahoma February Tornado: Response, Impacts, and Lessons Learned (Somer Erickson): Thursday, January 21, 2010, 11:15 AM, Room B213.
  
  RCC and RISA Partnerships for Research to Operations Development (Kevin Robbins) - Thursday, January 21, 2010, 2:45 PM, Room B212.

Members of the SCIPP team will also chair a number of sessions, so it will be a busy week for the team. If you plan to be in attendance at the AMS Conference, we hope to see you there!

Oklahoma Climate Adaptation Planning Kick-off Meeting

The Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS) in conjunction with the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) hosted a kick-off meeting to begin the process of developing a climate adaptation plan for the state of Oklahoma on the afternoon of December 10, 2009. The meeting brought together more than 60 participants representing a range of organizations including tribal nations, state agencies, city representatives, and federal agencies. A portion of the meeting was devoted to conducting an initial climate planning needs assessment which was accomplished through a table break-out session. Future meetings will be convened to continue this collaborative process with the next meeting occurring as soon as Spring 2010. To view the presentations provided at the December 10 kick-off meeting, please download those here (zipped file contains 4 presentations).

For more information about the climate adaptation planning process for Oklahoma or to get involved, please contact OU SCIPP program manager James Hocker at jhocker@ou.edu.

 

SCIPP to Co-host Oklahoma Climate Adaptation Planning Kick-Off Meeting at the Natl Weather Center

The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), in conjunction with the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, will be hosting a kick-off meeting to begin the development of a statewide climate adaptation plan for Oklahoma during the afternoon of December 10, 2009 at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. A collection of state, tribal, city, and federal representatives will be on hand for this initial introductory meeting which is being held to overview the concept, evaluate key needs of the state's decision-makers, and determine appropriate organizations to be involved in the process.

Although participation in this meeting is limited to invited representatives, please contact us at scipp@mesonet.org if you are interested in learning more about the meeting or would like to become involved in this long-term process. Thank you!

SCIPP Region-wide Survey Extended Until December 18, 2009

Due to strong ongoing participation in the Southern U.S. Hazards and Climate Change Planning Survey, SCIPP has extended the deadline to December 18, 2009. If you have not taken the survey yet and are interested in doing so, you may access it here.

For further information on the study, you may view a previous news story about this research project here.

Thank you for you interest and participation in this important research study!

SCIPP to Participate in Native Peoples Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop

Lynne Carter, SCIPP Program Manager on the LSU campus, will be representing SCIPP at the Native Peoples Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop 2 in Prior Lake, Minnesota November 18-21, 2009. Lynne will be presenting current research on climate change impacts in the Great Plains and will additionally facilitate a series of break-out sessions for the region. Lynne attended the inaugural Native Peoples Native Homelands workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico back in 1998, and she is thrilled to have the opportunity to continue the important process of working with our tribal partners nation-wide at this upcoming meeting.

Leading Climate Change Scientist Dr. Stephen Schneider to Give Public Lecture at LSU

SCIPP's LSU team will be hosting a public lecture by renowned climate change scientist Dr. Stephen Schneider of Stanford University on October 20, 2009 at 7:00PM in the Dalton J. Woods Auditorium on the LSU campus (Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The talk is entitled Managing Risks and Opportunities in a Changing Climate, and a description of the lecture is available below (you can also view it here).

If you have any questions about this event, please contact SCIPP Program Manager Lynne Carter at lynne@srcc.lsu.edu.

We hope you can join us!

Region-wide Hazards Planning Survey Now Available

This is an announcement to ask for your participation in a study being conducted by the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP; www.southernclimate.org) to evaluate regional preparedness for weather-related hazards now and in the future. SCIPP is a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) research program partnership between the University of Oklahoma and Louisiana State University. The mission of SCIPP is to provide stakeholder-driven climate products, services, and research to decision-makers and information users across the south-central U.S. states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

This particular study is an internet-based survey that aims to evaluate local level and state hazard planning process in place across the south-central U.S. in an effort to learn more about information sources used, planning challenges, data needs, and communication processes. In addition, this survey also focuses on climate change perceptions and how climate change may potentially affect hazard planning in your area in the future. The survey is broken down into (4) main sections including personal information, hazard planning, climate change perceptions, and information needs. We expect that it will take approximately 30 minutes to complete; your participation is entirely voluntary but greatly appreciated.

Results of this study will be used to better understand hazard planning information needs across the southern U.S. in an effort to develop new tools that will help with planning across the region. In addition to this research study, our SCIPP team would also be interested in working more closely with you and your organizations long-term; feel free to provide your contact information following the completion of the online survey if you are interested or you may email us directly.

To access the electronic survey, please click here. It will close on November 20, 2009.

For more information on SCIPP or for any questions regarding the survey itself, please contact program managers James Hocker and Lynne Carter at scippsurvey@mesonet.org.

Finally, if you have any colleagues or partner organizations that you feel would be suitable participants for this study, please feel free to pass this invitation along to them. 

Thank you very much for your time and interest in this study, and we hope to work more with you!

Sincerely,

James Hocker
SCIPP Program Manager
University of Oklahoma
scippsurvey@mesonet.org

Lynne Carter
SCIPP Program Manager
Louisiana State University
scippsurvey@mesonet.org 

SCIPP to Conduct Region-wide Survey on Climate Hazards and Climate Change Planning

In the next several months the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program will be conducting a region-wide survey on climate hazards and climate change planning. The survey aims to evaluate local-level hazard planning processes currently in place across the southern U.S. states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi in an effort to learn more about information sources used, planning challenges, data needs, and communication. Additional focus of the study is placed on attitudes about climate change and how climate change may affect hazard planning in your area in the future. 

If you are interested in participating in this study or if you have recommendations for potential participants, please contact one of our two program managers:

James Hocker
University of Oklahoma
jhocker@ou.edu

Lynne Carter
Louisiana State University
lynne@srcc.lsu.edu

Thanks for your time and interest!