Dr. Vincent Brown and Dr. Barry Keim, researchers with the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, recently published a study in Ecological Modeling investigating potential outcomes for oyster restoration and aquaculture development. Entitled “Predicting restoration and aquaculture potential of eastern oysters through an eco-physiological mechanistic model,” the paper focuses on using modeling to understand present oyster environmental conditions and how climate change may affect future oyster potential. The research also focuses on restoration efforts and potential areas with the best chance of rehabilitation.
Their paper focused on two periods, observed and future conditions. For the historical/current conditions, the researchers found that oysters in Louisiana had faster growth and greater reproduction than Texas oysters. However, their model showed that “Louisiana estuarine zones showed greater areas with no oyster survival compared to Texas estuarine zones.” Furthermore, through their model, the researchers found that the Texas coastline ecology could be more receptive to restoration efforts than Louisiana’s.
As for future conditions under climate change, they found that offshore regions had higher aquaculture and restoration scores. This is bolstered by other research they reference in their paper, which suggests exploring offshore areas for future oyster production. However, the group acknowledged the challenges in accurately forecasting small spatial resolutions over such a large timescale. While the general conclusions are corroborated with preexisting work, future research in modeling estuarian-level spatial scales was recommended.
You can read the full paper here.