U.S. Air Force Civil Engineer Center Energy Resilience Risk Assessment Tool / Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States

Investigator(s): Barry Keim, Alan Black, Vincent Brown, Derek Thompson, Nick Grondin, Stephen Kreller, Lissa Myers
Research Dates: 2018
Affiliate Organization(s): Louisiana State University • Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville • National Renewable Energy Laboratory
stakeholder(s): National Renewable Energy Lab • United States Air Force

SCIPP has previously partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to develop a climate change resilience plan for the SPR. During that time, mission-critical objectives of SPR were identified and the impact of current climate on SPR’s ability to meet those objectives was assessed.This previous work led to NREL partnering with SCIPP researchers again to provide technical assistance for the development of tools. Researchers prepared confidence scores on how climate stressors (e.g., temperature, sea-level rise, precipitation, etc.) would change under different climate model scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The National Renewable Energy Lab is developing a tool / app that highlights Air Force installation vulnerabilities to the climate stressors (i.e. what will potentially be at risk). To support this effort, SCIPP was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornados, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

For the final report, click here. Funding was received from the U.S. Air Force Civil Engineering Center to complete this project.

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